Updated Nov 22, 2014 6:51pm
SAN ANTONIO -- National Weather Service
Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Possible across South-Central Texas This Afternoon and evening....Locally Heavy Rain Possible through the day.
AREA OF CONCERN
All of South-Central Texas
Strong to severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
Isolated Tornadoes with a few Supercells possible.
Rainfall totals 1-3 inches, isolated 5 inches possible. Rain Rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour in heavier storms.
Mainly minor urban flooding possible. Higher totals may cause isolated flash flooding concerns.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue this morning mainly across the eastern half of South Central Texas. Thunderstorms will become more widespread during the day. Main impact time of this system will be from Noon to 6 PM across the western areas....Noon to 11 PM over the eastern areas. So as the storm system pushes east, rain/storm chances will end over the Hill Country by evening, but linger over the far eastern areas through early tonight.
An approaching upper level storm system will interact with increasing moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms across South Central Texas today. The chance for rainfall and strong to severe storms will be greatest during Saturday afternoon and evening as forcing from an upper level disturbance moves across the region. We are already seeing thunderstorm development over West Texas associated with the main lift from this system. Severe storms, some of which may be supercells, may produce large damaging hail, damaging wind gusts, and isolated tornadoes. All of South Central Texas is under a Slight risk of severe weather. Weather watches and warnings may be issued later today. We have increased the expected rainfall just a bit, average 1-3 inches, isolated 5 inches. Already some spots near the I-35 corridor picked up near 1.5 inches overnight. Be Prepared.
While it is rare to have severe weather in November, South Central Texas has seen its share of late Fall severe weather outbreaks. How significant this event becomes will be partly determined by how much sunshine we get today. If it stays cloudy and rain cooled, the threat for severe weather will go down and it will be more of a rain problem. If temperatures warm due to a good amount of early sunshine, storms will be bigger and stronger in the afternoon leading to a better severe weather chance.
Today: Showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could be severe. High near 74. Southeast wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms likely before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday: Sunny and mild High: 78